Myanmar: Quarterly update, February 2024

Date Posted: 11-Mar-2024
Author: Vaibhav Sharma, Bangalore Urmila Narzary, Bangalore Nidhi Dalal, Bangalore
Publication: Jane's Intelligence Review

Key points

• The Brotherhood Alliance launched co-ordinated attacks on military positions in Shan State, leading to a deteriorating security situation, social instability, and the displacement of thousands in the region
• On 12 January China brokered a ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar junta and the ethnic armed organisations, termed as ‘Haigeng Agreement' by the Brotherhood Alliance. However, the alliance accused the junta of ceasefire violation on 16 January
• Janes assesses that the tension between the NSAGs and the military is highly likely to continue until June
• Janes also assesses that the conflict has the potential to augment the refugee crisis in the region, as most of the Burmese try to flee to the neighbouring countries

Background

On 27 October 2023 a group of three ethnic armed organisations known as the ‘Brotherhood Alliance', consisting of the Arakan Army (AA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), conducted armed attacks against military positions in the northern parts of Shan State. The group launched ‘Operation 1027' to achieve its primary objective of safeguarding civilians, maintaining control over territory, and responding to ongoing artillery and airstrikes carried out by the military since February 2021. The operation also aimed to eradicate cyber-scam syndicates in the Kokang region, also known as Shan State Special Region 1, which are mainly operated by the Chinese-organised and allied militia groups based in Myanmar. Other militant groups, mainly the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the People's Defence Force (PDF), also joined the operation. The National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow government in Myanmar, welcomed the operation and vowed to collaborate with the Brotherhood Alliance to achieve its goal.