Key points
- Event: President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), accused Western countries of starting and sustaining the war in Ukraine, and outlined the prospects of socioeconomic development
- Significance: Suspension of the treaty is considered ‘reversible' by Russia. Russian consideration of French, British, and US nuclear arsenals in context of New START fundamentally broadens Russia's perspective of the treaty.
- Outlook: There is a roughly even chance Russia will completely disengage from New START in the next three months. There is also a roughly even chance Russia will not resume full co-operation on New START with the US until the end of the Ukrainian conflict. Despite the decision to keep nuclear weapons-testing infrastructure ready, Russia is unlikely to perform nuclear tests and violate the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in the next three months
Event:
On 21 February 2023, President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech to the Federal Assembly – an annual event determined by Russia's constitution. In Russia's political ecosystem, the speech intends to reassure the elite and the population that Russia's political, economic, and social course is positive and in line with expectations. It also intends to present an outlook for the next year.
In his two-hour speech, Putin announced the Russian Federation's suspension of its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), accused the West for starting the war in Ukraine, highlighted Russian economic successes, and promised significant social and financial support to the population.
Significance:
The last speech occurred in April 2021, it did not take place in 2022 because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin's decision to not to deliver the speech in 2022, as mandated by the Constitution, indicates the weakening of Putin's communication with the political elite – an invitation to attend the speech means one belongs to Russia's ruling class and indicates that one possesses political influence. The delay is highly likely to have been caused by a lack of success on the battlefield to present to the population. The so-called ‘special military operation' had significant impact on Russian elites' fortunes, while the rest of the population was exposed to gradually increasing cost of living and the risk of mobilisation.
Lacking any major victories in 2023, Putin attempted to present a distorted reality as fact, claiming that the West started the war and is responsible for it. He alleged that Ukrainians are “hostages of their [own] regime” and Russians are trying to solve the problem by “peaceful means”. Putin offered additional support for Russian troops – personnel will receive 14 days of leave every 6 months, indicating that the Kremlin expects a prolonged war.
The socioeconomic support package to the general population confirms that the economic successes Putin mentioned are spurious and the Kremlin is concerned of possible popular discontent. The scale of the announced socioeconomic support measures for the population, as well as multiple reassurances about economic growth within Russia aimed at the elite, indicates an attempt by the Kremlin to buy loyalty.
New START and nosediving arms control co-operation
A major announcement in Putin's speech on 21 February was suspension of participation in New START.
Signed on 8 April 2010 by Russia and the US, New START is a bilateral agreement to limit and reduce the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons to a maximum of 1,550 nuclear warheads each. In addition, New START limits deployed launch platforms including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers to a maximum of 700 each. It also caps non-deployed launch platforms to a maximum of 800 each. The monitoring and inspection terms state each signatory can have 18 on-site visits yearly and engage in remote-sensing and satellite-enabled verification. Extended for five years in February 2021, the treaty was binding until 2026.
Russia-US bilateral arms control co-operation has nosedived since the August 2022 Russian unilateral suspension of all on-site inspections.
A statement published after Putin's speech by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) suggests that Russia desires New START to “factor in the nuclear potential of all three nuclear-armed countries in NATO”. Russian desire to involve French, British, and US nuclear arsenals in context of New START fundamentally broadens Russia's perspective of the bilateral treaty.
The MFA statement also stresses that the Russian decision to suspend New START is reversible, conditional on Washington showing “good faith efforts to de-escalate” tensions. The statement accuses the US of “looking to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia” in connection with the ongoing Ukraine conflict and connects the heightened geopolitical tensions to the Russian decision to suspend participation in New START.
Russia may violate Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty if the US does
Another concerning part of Putin's speech was his instruction to state-owned nuclear conglomerate Rosatom and the ministry of defence to keep nuclear weapons-testing infrastructure ready. Putin mentioned that Russia does not plan to conduct a nuclear test, but it should be prepared if the US conducts a test violating the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). He also accused unnamed officials in Washington of contemplating tests and mentioned that the US was developing new nuclear weapons.
Outlook:
- New START has no provision for unilateral suspension but it is possible for signatories to unilaterally withdraw, which Russia has not exercised. The wording “suspension of participation” is likely a tentative measure or warning, which defers the decision to exit the treaty. There is a roughly even chance Russia will completely disengage from New START in the next three months and that Russia will not resume full co-operation on New START with the US until the end of the Ukrainian conflict
- Despite the decision to keep nuclear weapons-testing infrastructure ready, Russia is unlikely to perform nuclear tests and violate the CTBT in the next three months
- The speech leads to normalisation of war in Russian collective consciousness – the emphasis on socioeconomic development tells citizens that the war is not noticeably affecting their lives. The real economic outlook differs from what is stated. However, the population is unlikely to notice and is unlikely to protest against the war
(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)
