Date Posted: 14-Nov-2024
Author: Jack Nicholls, London, UK Nidhi Dalal, Bangalore
Across Myanmar, the intensity of the nationwide insurgency escalated between June and August. This included the Brotherhood Alliance relaunching an offensive against the government in June. Jack Nicholls and Nidhi Dalal examine this period of conflict and its implications for internal stability in the next three months.
Key points
- Intelligence requirement: Monitoring the threat of Myanmar's ongoing nationwide insurgency from June to August 2024
- Significance: The launch of the second phase of ‘Operation 1027' on 25 June was the most significant NSAG offensive in Myanmar since the first phase of the operation was conducted across October 2023–January 2024. Referred to in this report as ‘Operation 1027 Phase Two' , this offensive resulted in the Brotherhood Alliance increasing its territorial control of Rakhine State and occupying key towns situated to the north and east of the city of Mandalay. By the end of August the Brotherhood Alliance's expanded territorial control threatened the ruling SAC's strategic depth in Myanmar's central Bamar territory, as much of the SAC's remaining advanced military equipment, infrastructure, and manpower reserves are situated in this area
- Assessment and outlook: Janes assesses that in the next three months further SAC airstrikes against towns lost to militants are likely, especially in Mandalay Region, Sagaing Region, and Rakhine State. While the government is unlikely to have sufficient military capabilities to regain control of these areas, the SAC will very likely concentrate military resources against the NSAG-held city of Lashio to regain control of key military and transport infrastructure in northern Shan State
Intelligence requirement
Monitoring the threat of Myanmar's ongoing countrywide insurgency from June to August 2024.
Intelligence questions:
- What are the main trends and activities of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in Myanmar? Such groups include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA); the Brotherhood Alliance, which consists of the Arakan Army (AA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA); the Chin National Front (CNF); the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA); and the Karenni Army (KA).
- How will the capabilities of NSAGs evolve in relation to weapons and territorial control?
- How are security forces responding to the insurgency?
Significance
Overview
Between June and August 2024 the Brotherhood Alliance made several advances to the north and east of Mandalay during ‘Operation 1027 Phase Two'. This included militants capturing the headquarters of the Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) in Lashio, northern Shan State, on 3 August. This marked the first time that Myanmar's military government had lost one of its 14 RMCs. Lashio is located along National Highway 3 (NH3) from Mandalay to China, and several other towns along NH3 were also captured by the Brotherhood Alliance. The highway is one of the few main roads that connects the heavily urbanised north-central Myanmar (primarily Mandalay Region) with China. Meanwhile, the AA strengthened its control of Rakhine State as it advanced northwest and southward.
As noted in Myanmar: Quarterly update, May 2024 , the State Administration Council's (SAC's) control of central and southern territories is crucial for providing the government with sufficient strategic depth – the distance between its core political, economic, and military assets and the front lines – to retain control of key urban centres and retaliate against militant attacks. The advances made between June and August enabled the Brotherhood Alliance to challenge the government's strategic depth and marked the first time the SAC has faced such a significant threat to its stability since the February 2021 military coup that initiated the broader conflict.
Assessment
NSAG attack intensity
NSAG attacks in Myanmar, 1 June–31 August 2024. (Janes Events)
Janes recorded a slight increase in the number of NSAG attacks conducted by multiple ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), National Unity Government (NUG)-allied People's Defence Force (PDF) groups, and several pro-democracy insurgent groups in June–August (678) as compared with the previous three months (579). Pro-democracy insurgents include armed militants and groups whose affiliations could not be verified. Such members are neither part of the EAOs or the NUG-affiliated PDFs but have taken up arms against the ruling military government. PDF groups conducted 171 (29%) attacks in March–May, which increased to 229 (33%) in June–August. EAOs conducted 200 (34%) attacks in March–May, which increased to 263 (38%) in June–August. Other anti-SAC armed groups conducted 208 (35%) attacks in March–May, which decreased to 186 (27%) in June–August.
Security forces casualties in Myanmar, 1 March–31 August 2024. (Janes)
Janes recorded a 42% increase in security force fatalities from events collected in open sources, from 1,195 in March–May to 1,701 in June–August. The increased number of clashes and the militants' attempt to increase their area of control were likely drivers of the increased fatalities. The military has also started deploying conscripts to the battlefields in Rakhine State and Kayin State after the first batch of recruits completed their training on 28 June. The number of personnel captured by militants decreased substantially (by 67%): 1,471 personnel were captured in March–May and only 480 in June–August. The decrease in the captured number of personnel was likely due to the reduced number of surrenders by soldiers. Janes assesses that the military has attempted to reduce the numbers of personnel surrendering during clashes and defecting to NSAGs by taking measures such as increasing surveillance on personnel, conducting random checks in training camps, and withholding payments.
Attacks per province in Myanmar, 1 June–31 August 2024. (Janes)
Janes Events data indicated a gradual increase in attacks between June and August. Militant activity was highest in Sagaing Region and Shan State, while remaining lower in Kayah and Kayin states over the review period. While the NSAG activity was high in Kachin and Sagaing in the previous quarter of March–May, the conflict gradually moved from border states to heartland states in the June–August period. Attacks increased from June onwards after the MNDAA, TNLA, and PDF militants started the second phase of ‘Operation 1027', also known as Operation ‘Shan-Man', to make inroads into Mandalay Region through Shan State. However, the attacks decreased in Shan and Mandalay states in August, almost certainly due to the increased SAC airstrikes. For instance, the leader of Tabayin-based PDF group Bo Kyar Gyi had said they had to retreat while conducting the attacks due to the continuous airstrikes by the SAC. Similar incidents of retreating by the militants amid airstrikes and artillery strikes have also been reported after the military started its campaign to defend Mandalay city. Attacks in Sagaing Region have remained consistent due to the PDF's focus on controlling the Yaw Valley in the Gangaw district. The SAC has used roads in the valley to transport troops and equipment and connect to Kalay Airport.
NSAGs targeted SAC personnel and assets nationwide, but approximately one-third of the total attacks were concentrated in the border areas of Shan State and Mandalay Region. Militants conducted 110 attacks in Shan State and 133 attacks in Mandalay Region. Janes assesses that the conflict will likely be concentrated in the areas around the Shan and Mandalay border, in addition to Myanmar's border with China and Bangladesh, in the next six months. AA militants have been attempting to capture the pro-SAC Border Guard Forces (BGF) positions and Western Regional Military Command (RMC) in Rakhine State's Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships, which are located near the border with Bangladesh. In Shan State, near the border with China, KIA and TNLA militants have also been attempting to defend positions captured from the military after the SAC launched a campaign to retake positions in Lashio and Nawnghkio townships.
NSAG operations in Myanmar: Clashes and combatants, 1 June–31 August 2024. (Janes)
The map depicts the locations of the major SAC installations attacked and the NSAGs involved in the attacks. Militants targeted bases, camps, mines, oil fields, and soldiers deployed near the pipelines to provide security. However, the units of the personnel attacked near the pipelines could not be identified. The map contains only the locations where Janes could identify either the SAC entity or the order of battle (ORBAT) and the NSAG groups involved in the clashes. In addition to the installations listed in this visual summary, Janes also identified other camps and bases that NSAGs had targeted but could not ascertain with high confidence the units deployed and their precise locations.
For more information, please see Insight report: Re-launch of ‘Operation 1027' underlines increasing threat of nationwide insurgency to Myanmar government's stability in short term
