Key points
- As of 1700 h local time, Israeli media was reporting that over 900 Israelis had been killed and the Israeli Ministry of Health was reporting that 2,616 Israelis were being treated in hospitals
- At approximately 1800 GMT, Israeli media reported that Israel's Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stated that Israel had “control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense”
- At approximately 0630 on 10 October, the Associated Press stated that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was in discussions with both Hamas and Israeli officials about accessing prisoners but had not gained access to them
- The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced at approximately 1530 GMT, that 849 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli military operations and 4,250 had been injured since the start of operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
As of 10 October, tensions continue to be high along the Israeli border with ongoing clashes between Hizbullah militants and Israeli forces. At approximately 1830 local time, Hizbullah launched rockets from Lebanon targeting the area around Shlomi in northern Israel. In response Israeli forces conducted attacks against Hizbullah positions along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Israel-Gaza conflict: Timeline (Janes)
Israel-Gaza conflict: Timeline (Janes)
Israeli government actions
As of 1700 h local time, Israeli media was reporting that over 900 Israelis had been killed and the Israeli Ministry of Health was reporting that 2,616 Israelis were being treated in hospitals. At approximately 1800 GMT, Israeli media reported that Israel's Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stated that Israel had “control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense”. The Times of Israel reported that a Knesset (Israel's parliament) spokesperson stated there would be no delay to the Knesset's opening session on 16 October after a summer recess. Israel remains under martial law, issuing directives to the public through the Israel Defense Force's (IDF) Homefront Command. As of 10 October, there continues to be ongoing discussions regarding the formation of an emergency government incorporating members of the Knesset from opposition parties. On 10 October, Israel's Likud party stated that there had been major progress on the formation of an emergency government.
Operation Swords of Iron
At approximately 1900 h local time the Times of Israel reported that the total number of Israeli solders killed since the start of Operation Al Aqsa Flood had risen to 156.
As of 1800 GMT the IDF was continuing to conduct a large number of strikes against targets in the Gaza Strip. Please see the section below on IAF statements for updates on strikes in the Gaza Strip.
Hostages
Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have claimed to have hostages. On 10 October, Hamas threatened to execute prisoners if Israel fails to provide warning prior to conducting strikes. The process of informing Gazans of airstrikes is colloquially known as a “knock on the roof”. The previous day, on 9 October, Israeli media reported that the process was not being applied at the time.
As of the time of writing, the total number of foreign citizens being held captive by Palestinian militants has not been confirmed.
At approximately 0630 on 10 October, the Associated Press stated that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was in discussions with both Hamas and Israeli officials about accessing prisoners but had not gained access to them.
Gaza Strip and Southern Israel
The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced at approximately 1530 GMT, that 849 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli military operations and 4,250 had been injured since the start of operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
On 9 October, the United Nations stated in a daily press briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General that more than 120,000 Gazans had been displaced from their homes.
Hamas affiliated media continued to report that Hamas militants were attempting to infiltrate into Israel. The IDF also claimed at approximately 1700 GMT that they had killed militants attempting to infiltrate into Israeli communities, supporting these claims.
Other Gaza-based Palestinian militant groups claimed to take part in the conflict, including the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine's (PFLP) Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, and the Palestinian Mujahideen Brigades.
Rocket launches
Throughout 10 October, Palestinian militants have continued to launch rockets from the Gaza Strip directed at targets across Israel. The IDF released a press statement on social media at approximately 1100 h local time that the Hamas had launched 4,500 rockets at Israel since the start of Al Aqsa Flood.
At approximately 1500 h local time, the Al-Qassem Brigades released a statement on their website that the IDF were deliberately displacing Gazans and that they would conduct rocket attacks against Ashkelon to force citizens there to relocate. The statement said “the occupation does not stop the policy of displacing civilians, the Qassam Brigades will continue to bomb the city of Ashkelon until it is displaced, then it will move on to displace another city.”
West Bank
As of 10 October, there remains a significant risk of widespread violence in the West Bank. There is a significant risk that cyclical violence will accelerate in the immediate term. At approximately 1730 local time, the Palestinian Ministry of Health stated that 19 Palestinians had been killed and 110 had been wounded since the start of Al Aqsa flood.
Many of the main roads remain closed in the West Bank to reduce traffic flows between towns. As of 1900 GMT, a source in Ramallah told Janes that the streets in the city were generally quiet with some ongoing small demonstrations. In addition, businesses and schools in the West Bank continue to be closed reducing the number of large gatherings of students which Janes understands Palestinian Authority (PA) officials are concerned about. Janes understands that there is public concern about fuel shortages in the West Bank as this is primarily imported from Israel.
Arrest operations in the West Bank by the IDF have continued although Janes understands that these are being conducted at a comparatively lower rate than during other major conflicts with Gaza.
The Fatah associated Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) announced on social media on 10 October that its fighters were engaging Israeli security forces in the West Bank. In addition, PIJ stated it had conducted an attack against Israeli military forces in Beit Ummar, near Hebron.
Hizbullah and the northern border
As of 10 October, tensions continue to be high along the Israeli border with ongoing clashes between Hizbullah militants and Israeli forces. At approximately 1830 local time, Hizbullah launched rockets from Lebanon targeting the area around Shlomi in northern Israel. In response Israeli forces conducted attacks against Hizbullah positions along the Israel-Lebanon border.
At approximately 2130 h local time, Hizbullah affiliated Al Manar stated that Hizbullah had destroyed a “Zelda-type” vehicle, likely making the target an Israeli M113.
Statement by United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) – 1445 h local time: “Despite some very challenging days and concerning events, the situation in UNIFIL's area of operations is currently stable, although volatile. Exchanges of fire between Lebanese territory and Israel have fortunately not escalated into conflict. We are doing our utmost to ensure that escalation does not happen. Our peacekeepers remain in their positions and on task. We have increased patrols and operations to help detect rocket launches through our radar capabilities. Our activities are coordinated with the Lebanese Armed Forces, and many are conducted together with them. We have actively engaged with authorities on both sides of the Blue Line to de-escalate the situation and avoid misunderstandings. Peacekeepers continue their essential work, though this has at times been from shelters for their safety. Our main goal is to help avoid conflict between Lebanon and Israel, and any event that brings conflict closer is a concern. Our focus is on maintaining security and stability in the area. We have fully engaged our liaison and coordination mechanisms at all levels, to help avoid misunderstandings between Lebanon and Israel that could lead to an escalation of the conflict. This is our main focus at the moment, and we are working 24/7 to accomplish it.”
United States
As of the time of writing there is no confirmation that the United States Carrier Strike Group had arrived in proximity of the Eastern Mediterranean.
The United States announced on 8 October that it would be sending the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean. The group includes Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), as well as the Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80). On 9 October, the United States Department of Defense (DoD) stated it was “surging support to Israel, including air defense capabilities and munitions”. In addition, the United States announced it had “taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region”.
United Nations
On 10 October the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released a press statement stating that “There is already clear evidence that war crimes may have been committed in the latest explosion of violence in Israel and Gaza.” The statement was made in relation to ongoing OHCHR investigation into human rights in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Israeli Air Force statements on X – 10 October 2023
1632 h local time: Following the initial report regarding launches in northern Israel, approximately 15 rockets were launched from Lebanese territory. The IAF [Israel Air Force] Aerial Defense Array successfully intercepted four rocket launches. 10 launches fell in open areas.
1336 h local time: “The air force continues extensive attack waves; Dozens of warplanes attacked over 100 targets in the Al Furqan neighbourhood. Dozens of fighter jets recently attacked over 100 targets throughout the Al Furqan neighbourhood. Last day [9 October], the air force attacked over 250 targets in the area of the neighbourhood. Also, the air force attacked in the Rafah area, and among the targets was an underground tunnel designed for smuggling equipment and ammunition. Al Furqan neighbourhood serves as a terror nest for Hamas and from where many activities against Israel are carried out. The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will continue to act powerfully against the infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hamas that aims terror against the State of Israel.”
1132 h local time: “Following reports of hostile aircraft infiltrating the surrounding area, the air force detected a target moving towards the territory of the State of Israel and launched an interceptor towards it. An examination shows that it is not a hostile aircraft and does not pose a threat to the residents.”
0944 h local time: “Further to the initial report, suspicion of intrusion into the airspace in the Golan Heights and Galilee region was ruled out. There is no fear of a security incident.”
0932 h local time: “An IAF [Israel Air Force] combat helicopter attacked a terrorist squad identified by the Magellan unit of the IDF force, near the fence in the Zikim area. The force directed the helicopter to the spot, which attacked the squad and eliminated it.”
0922 h local time: “At the same time as extensive attacks in the Gaza Strip, this morning a combat helicopter attacked a terrorist squad that was identified near the fence in the Zikim area. An IDF force from the Magellan unit this morning identified a squad of armed terrorists near the fence in the Zikim area, the force directed a combat helicopter to the spot, which attacked the squad after a short time and eliminated it.”
0909 h local time: “A report was received of a suspected intrusion into the airspace of the Golan Heights and the Upper Galilee, IDF forces are accompanied by air force aircraft deployed and scanning the area.”
0804 h local time: “Tonight, IAF transport aircraft (“Karnaf” and “Shimshon”) flew back to Israel hundreds of IDF combatants who were abroad, to take part in Iron Swords War, as part of the IDF's efforts to concentrate additional forces for continued fighting. The landing of the aircraft and fighters is coordinated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Operations Directorate, the Israeli Air Force and the Strategy Directorate, and the IDF's Third Tier.”
0750 h local time: “Air Force transport planes (of the “Rhinoceros” and “Samshon” types) flew back to Israel tonight hundreds of IDF soldiers who were abroad, to take part in the fighting in the “Iron Swords” war, as part of the IDF's efforts to mobilize additional forces to continue fighting. The landing of the planes and fighters is coordinated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Operations Division, the air force and the Strategy Division, and the IDF's Third Circle.”
0555 h local time: “Over the last few hours, IAF fighter jets have been striking numerous terror targets belonging to terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip. Overnight, dozens of fighter jets struck over 200 targets in Rimal and Khan Yunis. Rimal and Khan Yunis are used as terror hubs for the Hamas terrorist organization, and a large number of terror attacks against Israel are directed there. Among the targets, IAF fighter jets struck Islamic Jihad terror infrastructure in Khan Yunis, a Hamas weapons storage site - located inside a mosque, and operational terror infrastructure used by Hamas terror operatives. Moreover, the fighter jets struck an operational residence belonging to a Hamas operative in the Anti-Tank Missiles Division, along with infrastructure used by one of the terrorist sorganization's senior officials, and an additional operational asset used by Hamas terror operatives located inside a multi-storey building in Al Furqan. The fighter jets also struck a Hamas operational command center located inside a mosque, a command center used by the Hamas Anti-Tank Missile Division operatives, and two additional operational residences.”
0547 h local time: “Among other things, the planes attacked a military infrastructure of the PIJ [Palestinian Islamic Jihad] terrorist organization located in Khan Yunis, a warehouse of weapons used by Hamas located in the mosque, an operational infrastructure used by operatives of the terrorist organization Hamas. In addition, the planes attacked an operational apartment of a Hamas operative in the anti-tank system, an infrastructure used by one of the organization's senior officials, and a property that was used by the organization's operatives and located in a multi-storey building in the Al Furqan neighborhood. The planes also attacked a mosque containing the operational headquarters of the terrorist organization Hamas, another headquarters that was used by operatives in the anti-tank force of the terrorist organization, and two additional operational apartments.”
Israel Defence Forces statement on X – 10 October 2023
1418 h local time : “An IDF aircraft also killed Zakaria Abu Ma'amer, one of the senior members of the Political Bureau of the terrorist organization Hamas, and the head of the Ministry of National Relations in the policy bureau of the terrorist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Abu Ma'amer was known to be close to Yahya Sinwar and as part of his position he did a lot of work to incite and act against the sovereignty of the State of Israel and endanger its residents. In addition, as part of his role, he belonged to the organization's senior forum and thus was involved in the organization's decision-making and planning many outlines and actions against the security of the State of Israel.”
1350 h local time: The IDF killed the economy minister of the terrorist organization Hamas tonight. Tonight, an IDF aircraft killed Jawad Abu Shamala, the Minister of Economy of the terrorist organization Hamas. As part of his role, he managed the organization's finances and earmarked the funds for financing and directing terrorism inside and outside the Gaza Strip. [He has] previously held security positions in the terrorist organization and as part of his position led several operations aimed at harming citizens in the State of Israel.”
1317 h local time: “An IDF force from the Magellan unit identified four armed terrorists in the area of Zikim Beach a short time ago, the forces directed additional fighters from the 17th (Bislamah) Battalion to the location, who exchanged fire with the terrorists in the area and eliminated them. The IDF continues at this time with extensive attacks in the Gaza Strip against the terrorist organizations.”
1236 h local time: The National Emergency Response Team of the IDF, the Shin Bet, the Israel Police, government ministries and the national cyber system, last night [9 October] located about 30 missing people in Kibbutz Ein HaSlosha in the south. Yesterday at 2100 [h local time], a distress call was received at the HML hotline about a group of missing citizens. The hotline staff verified the details of the incident, and using Ichans managed to locate them. At 2152 [h local time] IDF tactical teams arrived at the kibbutz and managed to rescue the 30 missing people who were there. The joint emergency rescue of the IDF and the Israel Police was opened at the beginning of the week to help locate missing citizens and rescue them. Since its opening, hundreds of families have applied. The IDF and the police are working day and night to locate the missing and to update the families with all the details that the security forces have. The HML is located at 4 HaNegev St, Kiryat Airport (Lahav Building 443) and will continue to provide an optimal response to the rescue efforts in the field.”
1054 h local time: “During the night and until the morning hours, many IDF and Israel Border Police (Magav) forces operated, under the intelligence guidance of the Shin Bet, in many centers throughout the Judea and Samaria Counter-Terrorism Division and arrested 40 wanted persons suspected of involvement in terrorist activities. Of these, 21 wanted people of the terrorist organization Hamas were arrested in 21 villages and cities throughout the Judea and Samaria Division. During the operation of the forces in the city of Bethlehem and in the village of Shiyuh, violent disturbances developed that included live fire. In the village of Abu Dis the IDF force responded by shooting at suspects identified near the IDF barriers in the area and in the city of Qalqilya suspects threw stones and Molotov cocktails and paint at the forces who responded with means to disperse demonstrations. In the city of Jenin, a shot was fired at an IDF force, with no casualties to our forces. The IDF will continue to act strongly against the terrorist organization Hamas.”
0546 h local time: “In recent hours, IDF warplanes and vessels have attacked many targets of the terrorist organizations throughout the Gaza Strip. Dozens of fighter jets attacked over 200 targets throughout the Rimal neighbourhood and Khan Yunis during the night. Among other things, the planes attacked a military infrastructure of the PIJ terrorist organization located in Khan Yunis, a warehouse of weapons used by Hamas located in the mosque, [and] an operational infrastructure used by operatives of the terrorist organization Hamas. In addition, the planes attacked an operational apartment of a Hamas operative in the anti-tank system, an infrastructure used by one of the organization's senior officials, and a property that was used by the organization's operatives and located in a multi-storey building in the Al Furqan neighborhood.”
Israel Police statements on X – 10 October 2023
0941 h local time: The official X (formerly Twitter) account of Israel Police posted a statement saying that “elite Yamas forces of the Border Police” conducted a rescue mission “under intense enemy fire in kibuutz Nir Am”. Janes has not been able to ascertain the actual time and date of this operation.
0913 h local time: “The Israel Police's Cyber Unit, in collaboration with the Ministry of Defense, the Israel Security Agency, and other national intelligence agencies, has successfully frozen cryptocurrency accounts used by Hamas for fundraising their activities. The Police Cyber Unit worked in coordination with the British police and managed to freeze an additional account at the British “Barclays” bank, the details of which were published by Hamas for the purpose of depositing donation funds. The Israel Police, Ministry of Defense, and other partners will continue the fight against terrorist financing and targeting the strategic financial assets of terrorist organizations.
Global protests
Since 7 October, civilians and religious groups held rallies in favour of Israel and Palestine. Janes recorded 32 protests and riots from Argentina, Australia, Canada, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States. In the countries of Canada, France, Germany, India, United Kingdom, and the United States, civilians held rallies supporting Israel and Palestine. Whereas, in Argentina's Buenos Aires, civilians held a rally in support of Israel. Countries with a large Islamic population held rallies in support of Palestine. Janes recorded three protests outside the Israel's diplomatic missions in Turkey, and United States. India deployed security personnel outside the Embassy of Israel in New Delhi to prevent any civil unrest or protests against Israel.
Global economic effects
The response of markets to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has been largely muted, indicating expectations that matters will remain confined to Israel's borders. Israel's benchmark stock market index, the Tel Aviv 35 (TA-35) fell 7% on opening following the commencement of hostilities, but subsequently regained some ground. Likewise, the Israeli Shekel dipped by 3% prior to plateauing. The price of crude oil, which also spiked on fears of broader instability in the region, also settled following an initial jump. The broader outlook will depend on the direction taken by hostilities and whether market expectations of a contained conflict are met.
It is inevitable, however, that events so far will subdue Israel's domestic economic activity. Sporadic rocket fire has disrupted business activity while the call-up of IDF reserves will have an inevitable impact on the availability of manpower and patterns of consumption in at least the short term.