Date Posted: 04-Dec-2024
Author: Sarbhanu Nath, Bangalore, India Cristina Varriale, London, UK
Key points
- Event: On 3 December at 2225 h local time South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced he was imposing martial law in the country, before reversing the decision at approximately 0430 h local time on 4 December. On 4 December the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP) put forward a bill calling for Yoon's impeachment
- Significance: It is very likely that Yoon's decision to impose martial law was driven by domestic political tensions. Although it is very unlikely that the decision to impose martial law was the result of a direct threat from North Korea, it is likely the government's threat perceptions of North Korea, and specifically South Korean intelligence assessments of North Korea's military engagement in the Russia-Ukraine war, were a factor in Yoon's decision making
- Outlook: It is almost certain that there will be significant domestic political instability in South Korea for the next four weeks, especially in Seoul. Three scenarios outlined by Janes indicate increased domestic political instability, including a legislative deadlock that could impact South Korea's defence and security engagement with Ukraine, and large-scale protests:
- The National Assembly secures enough votes to proceed with impeachment, and the Constitutional Court accepts the motion
- The National Assembly does not secure enough votes to proceed with impeachment, and Yoon remains president
- The National Assembly secures enough votes to proceed with impeachment but the Constitutional Court rejects the motion
Event
On 3 December at 2225 h local time South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced he was imposing martial law in the country, before reversing the decision at approximately 0430 h local time on 4 December. On 4 December the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP) put forward a bill calling for Yoon's impeachment.
Shortly after declaring martial law, Yoon appointed General Park An-soo, chief of staff of the army, as martial law commander and issued a martial law decree. In response, protesters gathered in opposition to the announcement and military personnel blockaded the National Assembly building. Although the decree suspended all political activity and political parties, representatives of the DP convened at the National Assembly building to vote along with the rest of the parliament against the decision. This resulted in Yoon lifting the martial law. On 4 December Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun offered his resignation.
Significance
It is very likely that Yoon's decision to impose martial law was driven by domestic political tensions.
On 2 December 2024 South Korean media outlet Yonhap News Agency reported that Yoon's approval rating stood at 25% in a survey conducted in the last week of November. In the same survey, support for the DP was 45.2% compared with 32.3% for the People Power Party (PPP). In the address announcing martial law, Yoon cited the National Assembly's activities as “paralysing” the government by seeking to impeach several government ministers, including Minister of the Interior and Safety Lee Sang-min and Chairman of the Board of Audit and Inspection Choe Jae-hae. The DP and smaller opposition parties have had a majority of 192 out of 300 (64%) seats in the National Assembly since the legislative election in April 2024. This allows the opposition to effectively block any bill Yoon or his PPP-led government proposes. Yoon referred to the DP's control of the National Assembly as a “legislative dictatorship” and said in his martial law speech that the National Assembly was destroying the liberal democratic system. On 2 December National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik from the DP suspended discussion on the 2025 national budget due to disagreements between the DP and the government, especially related to the budget for “confidential funds”. According to the government, these funds would support authorities in tackling drug crimes, digital sex crimes, and cyber crimes. The DP argues that the opacity of the funds risks improper use.
Although it is very unlikely that the decision to impose martial law was the result of a direct threat from North Korea, it is likely that the government's threat perceptions of North Korea, and specifically South Korean intelligence assessments of North Korea's military engagement in the Russia-Ukraine war, were a factor in Yoon's decision making.
In his speech, Yoon said he was declaring martial law to “defend the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces”. In response to South Korean intelligence assessments that North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia to support Moscow's efforts in the war with Ukraine, Yonhap News Agency reported on 22 October that an unnamed South Korean government official said the government was considering sending military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean armed forces. On 30 October DP National Assembly Representative Kim Byung-joo stated that, if the South Korean government were to send military personnel to Ukraine without the approval of the National Assembly, the DP would seek to impeach Kim Yong-hyun. It is likely that Yoon and Kim Yong-hyun perceived this as a risk to South Korean national security and as restricting the government's ability to monitor North Korean military activity in Russia.
Outlook
It is almost certain that there will be significant domestic political instability in South Korea for the next four weeks, especially in Seoul.
At the time of publication it is unclear the extent to which members of the PPP will support Yoon's impeachment. For an impeachment bill to pass in the National Assembly, it would need to secure 200 votes. The DP and small opposition parties occupy 192 seats, meaning at least eight PPP representatives would need to vote in favour of the impeachment.
Three scenarios outlined by Janes indicate increased domestic political instability, including a legislative deadlock that could impact South Korea's defence and security engagement with Ukraine, and large-scale protests.
Scenario 1: The National Assembly secures enough votes to proceed with impeachment, and the Constitutional Court accepts the motion. Under this scenario, presidential elections would have to be held within two months from the date on which the court confirms the impeachment. The DP would very likely enjoy an advantage in the subsequent election over the ruling PPP owing to the anti-Yoon sentiment. The DP's victory in the April 2024 election and the support that it has maintained up until December 2024 likely indicate anti-incumbency sentiment against the PPP.
- Risk positive indicator: The DP maintains popular support over the PPP during the trial period.
- Risk negative indicator: The PPP takes measures to improve its support among the population by distancing itself from Yoon and announcing alternate candidates to contest elections in case of confirmation of impeachment.
Scenario 2: The National Assembly does not secure enough votes to proceed with impeachment, and Yoon remains president. It is likely that in this scenario the National Assembly would reject the passage of government bills through parliament. There is also a roughly even chance that, in this scenario, the South Korean government would not involve the National Assembly in decisions regarding a South Korean military presence in Ukraine and military support for Ukraine. It is also very likely that large-scale protests calling for Yoon's resignation would occur. In this scenario, the credibility and stability of the government would be significantly weakened.
- Risk positive indicator: Any decisions regarding a South Korean military and/or intelligence presence in Ukraine are submitted to the National Assembly.
- Risk negative indicator: The South Korean government does not involve the National Assembly in Ukraine-related decision making, likely resulting in protests.
Scenario 3: The National Assembly secures enough votes to proceed with impeachment but the Constitutional Court rejects the motion. In the event of a successful impeachment, the Constitutional Court would conduct a trial of the process, which could take up to six months before announcing its decision. It is likely that during the trial period, pro-Yoon members of the PPP would organise protests in his support, which would very likely increase the risk of counter-protests. A rejection of impeachment by the Constitutional Court would likely strengthen Yoon's political standing within the PPP and help him rally support within his party. This would likely enable him to serve out the remainder of his presidential term until 2027, but his ability to pass laws would remain hampered by the opposition's majority in the National Assembly.
- Risk positive indicator: Neither pro-Yoon nor anti-Yoon protests occur at a large scale during the trial period.
- Risk negative indicator: During the trial period, both pro-Yoon members of the PPP organise rallies in support of the president and anti-Yoon protests continue.
This report is based on analysis published at 0920 h GMT on 5 December 2024. Janes is continuing to monitor the situation in South Korea closely and will provide further assessments in the event of any significant developments impacting national security.
(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)
For more information, please see South Korean martial law declaration indicates significant domestic political instability is almost certain in the next four weeks
