
Date Posted: 28-Jan-2025
Key points
- Event: The M23 NSAG claimed to have captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province and strategic hub for eastern DRC, on 26 January
- Significance: Goma is the largest city in eastern DRC and is the centre of government power for the region, making the loss of the city a significant blow for the DRC government and the largest gain for the M23 since its renewed offensive began in January
- Outlook: In the immediate term (one to four weeks) the M23 will very likely need to consolidate its position in Goma, while in the short term (one to two months) fighting in South Kivu province is likely to escalate as M23 continues its offensive southwards and FARDC refocuses its effort to prevent further M23 gains in South Kivu
Event
The M23 NSAG claimed to have captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province and strategic hub for eastern DRC, on 26 January.
Smoke rises from a Uruguayan Armoured Vehicle General Purpose (AVGP) armoured personnel carrier (APC) in MONUSCO colours, likely damaged and abandoned in fighting, on the side of the road linking Goma with Sake on 25 January 2025. (AFP via Getty Images)
In a press release published on 26 January, the Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) non-state armed group (NSAG) claimed the capture of Goma, but Janes could not independently verify the claim at the time of publication. Furthermore, local media outlets have reported that the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) continues to contest areas of the city. At least until 26 January Goma had been defended by a coalition of the Southern Africa Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), and FARDC, alongside associated foreign mercenaries and militia forces.
As of 28 January the situation in Goma is unclear. Articles published on 27 January by independent local news outlet Radio Okapi, assessed by Janes to be usually reliable, reported that fighting was still ongoing in the city, with the FARDC and pro-government militias holding the centre of the city and clashing with M23 in Majengo district, northwest of Goma International Airport, and Mount Goma's television station in the south of the city.
The Radio Okapi article also reported that MONUSCO and SAMIDRC remained in control of Goma International Airport, which is the primary base for both forces. The continued fighting was corroborated by Sky News, a UK based independent media outlet, which posted a video of its live television reporting to X (formerly Twitter) with a 0933 h local timestamp in the video.
A 27 January post to X by the Uruguayan military, a significant contributor to MONUSCO, announced that the UN mission had brokered a ceasefire between M23 and FARDC, to be observed from 1900 h local time on 28 January. Because both sides have failed to observe the majority of ceasefires agreed since the beginning of hostilities in 2022, Janes assesses that this ceasefire will likely be broken in the immediate term and that it is most likely that the M23 would consolidate full control of the city.
Key locations of M23-FARDC fighting around Goma and surrounding area. (Janes/Esri)
Goma is the largest city in eastern DRC and is the centre of government power for the region, making the loss of the city a significant blow for the DRC government and the largest gain for the M23 since its renewed offensive began in January.
Goma's strategic importance comes from its airport basing MONUSCO and SAMIDRC's and the DRC government's logistics. The M23 announced on 26 January that it would close the airspace above Goma, a credible threat given the group's shooting down of MONUSCO helicopters and FARDC medium-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in previous engagements, which leaves pro-government forces with no secure means of resupply. In a statement to a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on 26 January Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the DRC and Head of MONUSCO Bintou Keita said, “In other words, we are trapped.”
On 26 January in a message posted to X at approximately 2038 h local time, M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka called on FARDC units in Goma to surrender and present their weapons to MONUSCO by 0300 h local time. Images published by the website of the Uruguayan armed forces, on 26 January, showed MONUSCO troops accepting weapons and registering men in FARDC uniform, indicating that MONUSCO was able to continue operating and likely has some arrangement to co-operate and deconflict with M23.
The previous iteration of the M23 had captured Goma in 2013. The significance of the city's capture pushed Rwanda, which the United States and UN claim supports M23, to drop its support for the group following international pressure. The M23 factionalised in 2014, owing to a dispute over whether to use Goma as a bargaining chip in negotiations for the group's disarmament and integration into the FARDC, or to use it as a stepping stone in a greater campaign. This led to the group's disintegration thereafter later that year.
For more information on the conflict in eastern DRC between M23 and the DRC government, please see M23 makes ground against security forces in the DRC, heightening the risk to North Kivu's regional capital Goma , Conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Government challenges, the role of the M23, and tensions with Rwanda , and DRC forces collapse as rebel group M23 takes North Kivu key population centres and brings war to South Kivu in broad offensive .
For more information on Janes-managed entities discussed in this article, please see: Equipment: Armoured Vehicle General Purpose (AVGP) Order of battle: Democratic Republic of Congo Land Forces Rwanda Army Non-state armed groups: M23 |
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(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)